基于蒙特卡罗方法的风电场潮流计算

Wind Power Flow Calculation Based on Monte Carlo Method

摘要: 随着风能的飞速发展，风力发电得以大规模并入电网，其加剧了电力系统运行的不确定性，使得传统电力系统潮流计算不足以适应目前诸多的不确定性因素，针对这一情况，本文提出基于蒙特卡罗方法的不确定性电力系统潮流计算。本文首先根据风力的不确定性特征，建立风电出力的数学模型和概率分布，然后构建适宜潮流计算的含风电系统，其次根据数据样本在IEEE14节点配电系统上找到合格的注入节点，最后结合牛顿拉夫逊方法计算该系统含风力发电的潮流。数值计算结果表明本文给出的方法计算系统潮流较为准确，能够满足工程要求。

Abstract: With the rapid development of wind energy, wind power can be integrated into the power grid on a large scale, which exacerbates the uncertainty of power system operation, making the power flow calculation of traditional power systems insufficient to adapt to many current uncertain factors. In view of this situation, this paper proposes the power flow calculation of uncertain power system based on Monte Carlo method. Firstly, based on the uncertainty characteristics of wind power, the mathematical model and probability distribution of wind power output are established, and then the wind power system with suitable power flow calculation is constructed. Secondly, according to the data sample, qualified injection nodes are found on the IEEE14 node power distribution system. Finally, the Newton-Raphson method is used to calculate the current of the system with wind power generation. The numerical results show that the method presented in this paper is more accurate in calculating the power flow of the system and can meet the engineering requirements.