未来能源发展战略

Development Strategy of Future Energy

摘要: 按照可持续发展、低污染、安全度高和成本较低的原则和技术发展现状，主要分析了未来可以替代化石能源的四大较稳定能源，分别为水电、第四代核能、地热能、可燃冰。特别是地热能，由于其无限的储量，不污染环境，不释放温室气体，极可能占据总能量的半壁江山。其他能源方式，如太阳能、风能、潮汐能等，不稳定、无法远距离输送或投资大是其主要特征，只能是对稳定能源的一种补充。未来这种能源结构必将迎来“零碳”排放时代。

Abstract: In accordance with the status of technological development and sustainable development principles of low pollution, high degree of safety and low cost, this paper mainly analyses four major stable energy sources which can replace fossil fuels in the future. These energies are hydroelectric power, nuclear fusion energy, geothermal energy and flammable-ice. Geothermal energy, in particular, may account for half of our total energy consumption because it has unlimited reserve, does not pollute the environment and release no green house gases. Other types of energy, such as solar energy, wind energy and tidal energy are characteri- zed by their instability and high investment cost. Therefore, these energies can only act as a supplement to stable energy sources. In the future, this kind of energy structure will lead to an era of “zero carbon” discharge.