多因素驱动的配电变压器时变故障失效模型及应用
Time-Varying Failure Model of Multi-Factor Driven Distribution Transformer and Its Application
DOI: 10.12677/SG.2019.96028, PDF,  被引量   
作者: 杨永祥, 朱远成, 钱涛涛, 唐清亮：贵州电网有限责任公司六盘水供电局，贵州 六盘水 ；陈星田：重庆元虎科技有限公司，重庆；王雨潼：华北电力大学电气工程学院，北京
关键词: 变压器；负荷特性；健康状态；配电网；短期风险评估；Transformer； Load Characteristics； Health Status； Distribution Network； Short-Term Risk Assessment
摘要: 现有配电系统可靠性评估大多基于设备长期历史数据的平均故障率，无法响应配电网运行状态以及运行环境的动态变化。文章综合考虑变压器因热老化、放电、受潮等因素引起的故障失效，建立环境温度与负荷特性相依的故障率模型和以“健康状态”为条件的故障率模型，进而获得多因素驱动的变压器短期可靠性模型。通过构建相关配电网的可靠性评估指标，基于变压器的短期可靠性模型，利用前推故障扩散法实现配电网的短期可靠性评估。最后通过算例验证了变压器短期可靠性模型的有效性，所得结果可实现配电网的故障预警，为配网的故障快速排除提供基础。
Abstract: Most of distribution system reliability evaluation is based on the average failure rate of the long-term historical data of the equipment, which cannot respond to the dynamic changes of the operation status and the operation environment. When synthetically considering the failure model of transformer caused by thermal aging, discharge, damp and other factors, the paper presents a failure model of environmental temperature and load characteristics, with the failure model based on health status. Therefore, we can gain the short-term reliability model of transformer driven by multi factors. With the reliability evaluation index constructed of distribution network, the short-term reliability evaluation of distribution network is realized by using the forward fault diffusion method based on the short-term reliability model of transformer. Finally, the validity of the short-term reliability model of the transformer is verified by a test system. The result can realize the fault early warning, and provide the basis for the rapid troubleshooting of the distribution network.
文章引用：杨永祥, 朱远成, 钱涛涛, 唐清亮, 王颖, 陈星田, 王雨潼. 多因素驱动的配电变压器时变故障失效模型及应用[J]. 智能电网, 2019, 9(6): 253-262. https://doi.org/10.12677/SG.2019.96028

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