错峰生产前后我国水泥行业经济增长因素实证分析Analysis of Economic Growth Factors of China Cement Industry before and after Staggered Production

DOI: 10.12677/ASS.2020.97150, PDF, HTML, XML, 下载: 26  浏览: 60

Abstract: Using the characteristics of the Cobb-Douglas production function, the data was processed and linear regression was performed to establish a model. It was found that the impact of capital and output on cement output from 2005 to 2018 was not great. Further analysis showed that the economic development of the cement industry has faults around 2015, and the analysis of these two time periods revealed that capital and labor before the end of 2014 before staggering production can explain 97.4% of output, but after 2015, the impact of capital and labor on output is very small.

1. 引言

2. 增长模型假设

Cobb-Douglas生产函数 $Y=A{K}^{\alpha }{L}^{\beta }$ 经微分，差分替代等一系列变化后，得索洛增长速度方程： $y=a+\alpha k+\beta 1$，其中：y、k、1分别代表产出、资本和劳动增长速度(水平法计算年平均增长速度，下同)；a代表技术进步增长速度。由上式易得： $1=\frac{a}{y}+\alpha \frac{k}{y}+\beta \frac{l}{y}$ 由此得全要素生产率 $\frac{a}{y}$，资本和劳动增长贡献率分别为 $\alpha \frac{k}{y}$$\beta \frac{l}{y}$ [1] [2]。

$Y=A{K}^{\alpha }{L}^{\beta }$ 易得： $LnY=LnA+\alpha LnK+\beta LnL$，此式容易进行回归分析。产出值一般采用总产值；劳动投入量一般用劳动者人数指标确定；资金投入量一般用当年固定资产原值与定额流动资金年平均余额之和来确定 [2]。

3. 实证分析

3.1. 2005~2018年全国水泥行业经济增长因素分析

$LnY=6.128-0.831LnL+1.355LnK$

$\text{\hspace{0.17em}}{R}^{2}=0.936\text{}S.E.=0.07870\text{}F=80.036$

$LnY=3.181+0.437LnL+0.563LnK$

Table 1. ANOVA table of regression equation from 2005 to 2018

Table 2. Coefficient analysis table regression equation from 2005 to 2018

Table 3. Analysis of OLS estimation coefficient of intensity form 2005 to 2018

Table 4. Economic growth analysis table from 2005 to 2018

3.2. 水泥行业2005~2014年经济影响因素分析

$LnK=-1.527+1.722LnL-0.079LnK$

$\text{\hspace{0.17em}}{R}^{2}=0.9744\text{}S.E.=0.05926\text{}F=151.252$

Table 5. ANOVA table of regression equation from 2005 to 2014

Table 6. Coefficient analysis table regression equation from 2005 to 2018

3.3. 水泥行业2015~2018年经济增长因素分析

Table 7. ANOVA table of regression equation from 2015 to 2018

4. 结论

NOTES

*通讯作者。

 [1] 罗伯特∙索罗. 经济增长因素分析[M]. 北京: 商务印书馆, 1999. [2] 威廉H•格林. 经济计量分析[M]. 北京: 中国社会科学出版社, 1998. [3] 薛薇, 编著. 统计分析与SPSS的应用[M]. 北京: 中国人民出版社, 2011.