基于三次指数平滑法的转向架关键参数趋势预测

Trend Prediction of Key Bogie Parameters Based on the Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method

摘要: 转向架作为动车组的核心部件，其性能状态直接影响着动车组的行车安全，转向架关键部件性能表征参数预测是实现转向架故障预测与健康管理的关键。本文通过研究转向架故障发生特点，探究转向架状态表征参数，结合三次指数平滑法适用范围广的优势，构建基于三次指数平滑法的转向架关键参数趋势预测模型。为了验证方法的有效性，本文使用CRH380动车组转向架轴承温度与轴箱齿轮温度数据进行了预测。结果表明，基于三次指数平滑法的转向架关键参数趋势预测方法能够有效预测转向架关键参数的变化趋势。

Abstract: As the core component of the EMU, the performance status of the bogie directly affects the driving safety of the EMU. The prediction of the performance characterization parameters of the key components of the bogie is the key to realize the failure prediction and health management of the bogie. In this paper, by studying the characteristics of bogie failures, exploring the characterization parameters of the bogie status, and combining the advantages of the wide application range of the cubic exponential smoothing method, a trend prediction model for the key bogie parameters based on the cubic exponential smoothing method is constructed. In order to verify the effectiveness of the method, this paper uses CRH380 EMU bogie bearing temperature and axle box gear temperature data to predict. The results show that the trend prediction method of key bogie parameters based on the cubic exponential smoothing method can effectively predict the change trend of key bogie parameters.