要素投入、技术进步与“一带一路”国家经济增长

Factor Input, Technological Progress and Economic Growth of the “Belt and Road” Countries

摘要: 为了摸清“一带一路”沿线国家的基本情况，更好地推进“一带一路”战略的实施，本文在对“一带一路”沿线国家进行资本存量估算的基础上，采用基于DEA的Malmquist指数法测算样本国1995~2018年的全要素生产率(TFP)，并对研究期间资本投入、劳动投入及TFP增长对经济增长的贡献率进行了计算。结果显示1996~2018年，“一带一路”国家TFP平均增长率为0，其中技术效率平均增长率为0.4%，技术进步增长率为−0.4%；资本投入对于经济增长的贡献率远高于TFP。此外，通过建立VAR模型分析了GDP增长对各因素冲击的响应，结果证明TFP对GDP增长具有显著影响。本文认为，经济增长从依赖资本投入转向依赖TFP增长是发展的必然，“一带一路”国家应注重技术创新，早日实现经济增长动能转换；中国在对外投资过程中应准确把握沿线各国特点，进行有选择性的投资。

Abstract: Based on the capital stock estimation of the countries along the “Belt and Road”, this paper uses the DEA-based Malmquist index method to measure the total factor productivity (TFP) of the sample countries from 1995 to 2018. The contribution of investment and TFP growth to economic growth was calculated. The results show that from 1996 to 2018, the average growth rate of TFP in the “Belt and Road” countries is 0, of which the average growth rate of technological efficiency is 0.4% and the growth rate of technological progress is −0.4%; the contribution rate of capital investment to economic growth is much higher than TFP. In addition, the VAR model was used to analyze the response of GDP growth to the impact of various factors, and the results proved that TFP had a significant impact on GDP growth. This article believes that economic growth is dependent on capital investment to TFP growth which is inevitable for development. The “Belt and Road” countries should focus on technological innovation and realize the conversion of economic growth momentum at an early date.