援助医疗对公共卫生事件的控制及模型构建

The Control Effect of Medical Assistance on Public Health Emergencies and Model Construction

摘要: 基于SEIR传染病模型，构建了能够评估援助医疗对突发公共卫生事件影响的动力学模型，以湖北省的疫情数据以及援颚医疗队的数据，采用启发式算法对动力学模型中的参数进行了估计，利用MATLAB 2018b软件进行了模拟仿真。结果表明：医疗援助能降低现有确诊病例数和累积死亡病例数，还可以在疫情发展中促进治愈病例数的累积。本研究所构建的模型揭示了援助医疗在突发公共卫生事件中所起到的控制作用。

Abstract: Based on SEIR infectious disease model, this study constructs a dynamic model that can evaluate the impact of medical assistance on public health emergencies. Utilizing the epidemic data of Hubei province and the data of medical teams that aid in Hubei, this study estimates the parameters of the dynamic model via heuristic algorithm. This study conducts simulation experiments and analyzes the effect of medical assistance on epidemic control by using MATLAB 2018b software. Results show that the medical assistance is able to reduce number of confirmed cases and cumulative number of deaths cases as well as promote the cumulating of cured cases during the epidemic development. The established model of this study reveals the specific role of medical assistance in the public health emergencies.