纯电动汽车保有量预测以及充电设施需求分析

Prediction of Electric Vehicles Ownership andCharging Facilities

摘要: 电动汽车充电设施的合理规划与建设不仅能够提高充电设施的运营效益，还能够减小对电网的谐波危害等。因此论文对纯电动汽车充电设施的需求分析方法进行了研究。首先分析了现有汽车保有量预测方法的不足，提出了基于残差灰色模型的纯电动汽车汽车保有量的预测方法。并以重庆市为例，对重庆市的纯电动汽车保有量进行了预测，验证了论文提出的预测方法的准确性，并得出了今后10年电动汽车保有量。根据充电设施的建设原则，提出了充电设施的需求分析计算方法，在此基础上对重庆市充电站的建设进行了需求分析，得出了重庆市的纯电动汽车充电站与充电桩的需求数量。

Abstract: A reasonable planning and construction of electric vehicle charging facilities can not only improve the operation efficiency of charging facility, but also can reduce the harm to the grid. Therefore, in the paper the analysis on the pure electric vehicle charging facilities needs are carried out. Firstly analysis of the current car ownership forecasting methods is discussed, and method to forecast the ownership of electrical vehicle (EV) is presented. Then the ownership of EV in Chongqing is analyzed, and results indicate that the method presented in this paper can calculate the EV owner ship correctly. In the end the method to evaluate the requirement of EV charging faculties is presented, and the requirement of EV charging faculties in Chongqing is analyzed.