摘要:
经济发达的珠江口地区，最高洪潮水位会给生活和建设带来严重破坏和重大损失。通过对代表站灯笼山站和横门站的最高洪潮水位系列进行综合分析，结果表明：1) 20世纪50年代以来珠江口代表站最高洪潮水位系列具有显著上升趋势；2) 珠江口代表站最高洪潮水位序列在20世纪90年代初期以来的上升属于突变现象，灯笼山站和横门站开始发生突变的开始时间分别约为1981年和1983年；3) 海平面上升对珠江口代表站最高洪潮水位变化趋势的影响大于最大流量的影响。
Higher peak water level of the Pearl River Estuary gives a great threat to life and construction losses in these developed areas. The peak water level series of the Denglongshan and Hengmen stations are analyzed by several methods. The results show that: 1) the peak water level has significant upward trend at representative station in the Pearl River Estuary since 1950s; 2) the increasing of the peak water level belongs to mutations phenomenon since early 1990s, the Denglongshan and Hengmen stations began to mutate re-spectively in 1981 and 1983; 3) the influence of sea level rise on change trend of the peak water level is greater than that of the maximum flow.