中国崛起的历史定位与发展方式转变的切入点

The Historical Context of the Rise of China and the Entry Point of the Transformation of the Development Pattern

摘要: 2007年在美国发生的次贷危机已转化为主权货币的全球博弈，而人民币升值是其中焦点。考察中国自秦以来和西方五百年来的发展历史，我们提出自我肯定需求的新概念和一个在分配环节的全新的供需理论。只要有可能，人对自己的评价一般高于他认知范围内的平均水平，在分配环节他更希望得到高于自己评估的份额。这种需求我们称之为自我肯定需求。大多数情况下，总的自我肯定需求必定大于其所在社会的当下产出，这就形成了一个缺口，这个缺口对任何统治者(或管理者)而言都是一个巨大的挑战：要维持一个社会的和谐稳定，这个缺口必须由额外的供给来填补。纵观历史，我们指出四种主要的额外供给方式：学习和自主创新、外部获取、透支未来以及崩溃后的再出发。国民的自我肯定需求是否得到适度的满足，正是国家兴衰的关键。中国的崛起是中国两千多年以来历史进程与全球五百年以来现代化进程的交汇点。学习和自主创新、外贸顺差以及再出发这三种财富的涌现方式同时在中国上演。大量涌现的资源是中国发展的动力，但是不合理的运用会驱使中国经济泡沫化，泡沫化的后果就是金融危机和公有资产快速流失，国家的发展潜力受到实质性损害。因此，我们提出创建一种以人为本的货币制度，为每一个公民建立社会保障个人账户并注资，将涌现的资源平均地分配给每一个公民，以此作为中国发展方式转变的最佳切入点。

Abstract: The subprime mortgage crisis of the United States in 2007 has evolved into global game of sovereign currencies, and the appreciation of Chinese currency RMB has been one of the focuses. By analyzing the history of China since Qin Dynasty and the development history of western countries in the last five cen-turies, a new concept of self-assertiveness demand is introduced and a new theory of supply and demand in the process of income distributions is proposed. Self-assertiveness demands describe the demands originated from human cognitive tendency to confirm self value. Normally, people tend to give themselves higher than average evaluation within their scopes, and expect to receive more than they would be supplied, if possible. Therefore, the total self-assertiveness demands of a society tend to exceed the total current supplies. This gap is a challenge to any ruler or manager. To maintain a harmonious and stable society, the excessive demand has to be met with extra supplies. We propose four types of extra resource supplies in accordance with the challenge: learning and innovations, external acquisitions, overdraws from the future, and dynastic changes. It is the key to the rise and fall of nations that their citizens’ self-assertiveness demands are properly satisfied. China is now facing a chance of once-in-a-millennium, an intersection between Chinese two-millennium his- tory and the five-century global modernization. Three resource emergences, learning, trade surplus and re- starting from ruins, are taking place in China simultaneously. The abundant emerging resources are the driving force behind economic development, but failure to properly utilize the resources will lead to formation of economic bubbles, and the consequent bust of the bubbles will result in heavy losses of public wealth which in turn exerts permanent harms to sustainable development. It is, therefore, proposed to establish a people-oriented monetary system by creating and registering a society security personal account for every citizen and distributing the emerging resources to each account equally, and to make it the best entry point of the transformation of the development pattern of China.