T639模式20 h降水预报产品对和田地区降水量预报准确率的检验

Verification of the Accuracy of the 20 h Precipitation Forecast Product of T639 Model to the Precipitation Forecast in Hotan Area

摘要: 利用2014年1~12月和田地区皮山(51818)、和田(51828)、民丰(51839)三个站点降水量级进行检验，得出以下结论：1) 一般降水预报上，皮山(51818)和和田(51828) T639模式预报1~12月准确率较低，在10%以下，民丰(51839) 1~12月准确率较低，在3%以下；2) 各量级降水预报准确率上，皮山(51818) T639模式预报12~72 h对小量降水预报准确率为5%~11%，空报率较大，达91%，和田(51828) 12~72 h对小量降水预报准确率为10%，空报率较大，达84%，民丰(51839) 12~72 h对小量降水预报准确率为5%，空报率较大，达94%；3) 通过检验三个站点一年的降水资料发现，虽然T639模式预报产品已有很大发展，但降水预报准确率较低，在3%~10%，空报率较大，在81%~98%；4) 2014年，和田地区为降水偏少的干旱年份，年内只出现了2次较明显的天气过程，出现在夏季的6月18~24日和7月1~19日，这两次降水期间T639模式预报的降水预报准确率在15%~21%，其余时段全地区基本无降水，但模式预报空报率仍大，导致全年预报准确的下滑。

Abstract: The precipitation magnitude at Pishan (51818), Hotan (51828) and Minfeng (51839) stations in Hotan region from January to December 2014 was used for inspection. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) In general precipitation forecast, the accuracy of Pishan (51818) and Hotan (51828) T639 models is low from January to December, below 10%, Minfeng (51839) has a low accuracy rate from January to December, below 3%; 2) On the accuracy rate of precipitation prediction of all orders of magnitude, the accuracy of Pishan (51818) T639 model forecast for small amount of precipitation in 12~72 h is 5%~11%, and the false forecast rate is 91%. Hotan (51828) 12~72 h accuracy rate of small precipitation forecast is 10%, and the rate of empty forecast is relatively high, reaching 84%. Minfeng (51839) has the accuracy rate of small precipitation forecast for 12~72 h 5%, with a large vacancy rate of 94%; 3) Through the examination of the one-year precipitation data of three stations, it is found that although the T639 model prediction products have great development, but the accuracy rate of precipitation forecast is relatively low, ranging from 3% to 10%, and the rate of air forecast is relatively high, ranging from 81% to 98%; 4) In 2014, Hotan is a drought year with less precipitation. There are only two obvious weather processes in the year, which occur on June 18~24 and July 1~19 in summer, during the two precipitation periods, the accuracy rate of precipitation forecast by T639 model is 15%~21%, and there is basically no precipitation in the whole region in other periods, but the false reporting rate is still high, leading to the decline of the accuracy of the annual forecast.