我国社会消费品零售总额影响因素和预测

Influencing Factors and Forecast of Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in China

摘要: 本文以2002年至2021年的人均可支配收入、GDP、电力消费、企业商品价格指数(CGPI)、旅客运输量、货物周转量、工业企业营业收入、石油和天然气开采业营业收入为变量，探究这些变量对社会消费品零售总额的影响。本研究建立了以电力消费、企业商品价格指数、工业企业营业收入以及石油和天然气开采业营业收入为解释变量的多元回归模型。进而发现电力消费、企业商品价格指数、工业企业营业收入对社会消费品零售总额的影响为正向的；石油和天然气开采业营业收入对社会消费品零售总额的影响为负向的。工业产能增长导致对能源消费的需求提高，而国家“碳中和”、“碳达峰”的发展需求，使得国内的工业发展结构不断优化，以电能取代石油的工业生产模式不断增加，因此国内的工业产值提高，会使得电力消费提高，石油和天然气开采业营业收入反而降低。工业产值的提高，使得工业企业营业收入提升、企业商品价格指数的增加，最终导致社会消费品零售总额增加。因此电力消费、企业商品价格指数、工业企业营业收入对社会消费品零售总额的影响为正向的；而石油和天然气开采业营业收入对社会消费品零售总额的影响为负向的。

Abstract: This paper uses the per capita disposable income, GDP, electricity consumption, corporate goods price index (CGPI), passenger traffic, cargo turnover, operating income of industrial enterprises, and operating income of the oil and gas extraction industry from 2002 to 2021 as variables to explore the impact of these variables on the total retail sales of consumer goods. This study establishes a multiple regression model with electricity consumption, corporate goods price index, operating income of industrial enterprises and oil and operating income of gas extraction industry as explanatory variables. And then it is found that the influence of electricity consumption, corporate goods price index, and operating income of industrial enterprises on the total retail sales of consumer goods is positive; the operating income of the oil and gas extraction industry has a negative impact on the total retail sales of consumer goods. The growth of industri-al production capacity leads to an increase in the demand for energy consumption, while the national development policies of “carbon neutralization” and “carbon peaking” are such that the domestic industrial development structure is optimized. The industrial production mode of replacing oil with electric energy is increasing. Therefore, the increase of the domestic industrial output value will increase the electricity consumption, but the operating income of the oil and gas extraction industry will decrease. The increase in industrial output value leads to an increase in the operating income of industrial enterprises and the increase in the corporate goods price index. Finally, leads to an increase in the total retail sales of consumer goods. Therefore, electricity consumption, corporate goods price index, and operating income of industrial enterprises have a positive impact on the total retail sales of consumer goods; However, the impact of the operating income of the oil and gas extraction industry on the total retail sales of consumer goods is negative.