西昌地区气候生产潜力的变化特征分析

The Effect of Climate Change on Climate Potential Productivity in Xichang Region

摘要: 利用西昌地区1960~2019年地面国际交换站气候资料日值数据，根据Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了西昌地区的气候生产潜力，运用了趋势分析、突变分析、相关分析等方法，分析了西昌地区近60a气候生产潜力的变化趋势以及气候变化对气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明，1960~2019年，西昌地区气候生产潜力变化介于1125.1~1668.0 kg/(hm²∙a)之间，年均气候生产潜力为1458.7 kg/(hm²∙a)，气候生产潜力波动幅度较大，总体呈小幅度上升趋势，气候倾向率为14.1 kg/(hm²∙a)/10a。1984年为气候生产潜力从偏低时期转为偏高时期的分界年。气候生产潜力年代际变化与年代际降水量的变化趋势一致，总体呈先升高后降低的趋势，且气候生产潜力最高值与降水量最高值均出现在20世纪90年代。

Abstract: Using the daily climate data of the terrestrial international exchange station in Xichang Region from 1960 to 2019, the climate potential productivity of Xichang was calculated according to the Thornthwaite Memorial model. The trend analysis, mutation analysis and correlation analysis were used to analyze the change trend of climate potential productivity in Xichang region in the past 60 years and the impact of climate change on climate potential productivity. The results show that from 1960 to 2019, the climate potential productivity in Xichang region changed from 1125.1 kg/(hm²∙a) to 1668.0 kg/(hm²∙a), and the average annual climate potential productivity was 1458.7 kg/(hm²∙a). The climate production potential fluctuated greatly and tended to rise slightly in general. The climate tendency rate was 14.1kg/(hm²∙a)/10a.The year 1984 was the dividing year when the climate production potential changed from a low period to a high period. The interdecadal variability of climate potential productivity is consistent with the trend of interdecadal variability of precipitation. The overall trend is to rise first and then decrease, and both the highest value of climate potential productivity and the highest value of precipitation appeared in the 1990s.