黑河中游取水总量控制风险管理研究

Risk Management of Total Water Withdrawal Control in the Middle of Heihe River Reach

摘要: 取水总量控制是通过取水量的合理分配和总量控制，实现流域经济社会和生态环境的协调发展。黑河是我国较早实施取水总量控制的流域之一，由于上游来水、区域取水以及用水等过程的不确定性，黑河中游取水总量控制系统不可避免存在着风险，有必要开展相应的风险管理研究。本文结合黑河中游实际情况，从黑河中游取水总量控制的风险因子出发，构建了黑河中游取水总量控制风险评价指标体系，并对风险进行了估算和分析。结果表明黑河中游的取水总量控制风险处于可控状态，但中游的农业和生态用水受到一定的限制。并辨识主要致险和承险因子，提出相应的风险管理措施，为取水总量控制在黑河中游的实施提供指导。

Abstract: Total water withdrawal control is able to realize coordinated development of the social economic and ecological environment through the reasonable distribution and total amount control. The HeiheRiveris the early implementation of total water withdrawal control. Due to the uncertainty of flow runoff and water demand, the risk of total water withdrawal control in the middle of Heihe River reach is objectively exist, and the corresponding risk management research is also necessary. Based on the analysis of the risk factors, combining with the actual situation of the middle of Heihe river reach, the risk evaluation index system of total water withdrawal control was proposed and the risks were analyzed. The results show that the risk level of total water withdrawal control in the middle Heihe River reach is in a controllable state, but the agricultural and ecological water use are limited in certain extent. The main risk factors and counterforce factors are given which could provide guid- ance for risk management and implementation of total water amount control in this region.