三元悖论“非角点解”与中国宏观经济政策组合——基于MS-VAR模型的实证分析

The “Non-Corner Solution” of the Trilemma and China’s Macroeconomic Policy Portfolio—An Empirical Analysis Based on the MS-VAR Model

摘要: 伴随着中国经济的不断发展，中国央行采取了不同的宏观经济政策组合来进行配合。作为宏观政策经典分析框架，传统的三元悖论并没有指明三元政策的主次以及发展趋势。通过构建MS-VAR模型来划分中国三元悖论的实际配置格局，并以此来研究不同区制下中国的宏观经济政策组合，回归结果显示：汇率稳定性为中国三元悖论政策的主元，资本账户开放程度次之，货币政策独立性再次之。因此，中国央行选择政策组合时，可以在维持汇率稳定的基础上，逐步推进资本自由流动，并根据中国实际情况配置三元政策目标的权重，促进中国经济良性发展。

Abstract: With the continuous development of the Chinese economy, the People’s Bank of China has adopted different macroeconomic policy portfolios to cooperate. As a classic analytical framework of macro policy, the traditional Trilemma does not specify the primary and secondary as well as the development trend of the ternary policy. By constructing an MS-VAR model, we can delineate the actual configuration pattern of China’s Trilemma and utilize it to study the macroeconomic policy mix under different regimes in China. According to the regression results, exchange rate stability emerges as the primary determinant of China’s Trilemma policy, followed by the level of capital account openness, and then monetary policy independence. Therefore, when choosing the policy portfolio, the People’s Bank of China can gradually promote the free flow of capital on the basis of maintaining the stability of the exchange rate, and allocate the weight of the Trilemma policy objectives according to China’s actual situation, so as to promote the sound development of China’s economy.