中国货币政策独立性与有效性的实证分析
The Independence and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence from China
摘要: 一国货币政策的有效性一直备受关注，而一国货币政策是否具有独立性是该国货币政策工具能否有效运用的前提条件。本文从外部传导与内部反应两个方面对中国货币政策的独立性与有效性进行了实证检验。独立性方面：先从外部传导的角度，分析了美国利率、日本利率和欧盟利率对中国货币供应量和中国同业拆借利率的影响；然后从央行的独立性和内部作用机制来分析货币政策的独立性。有效性方面，重点分析了中国货币供应量和利率对货币政策的最终目标——“保持人民币币值稳定、并以此促进经济增长”的影响。本文最后结合分析得出的结论，给出了一些建议。
Abstract: The effectiveness and independence of monetary policy is a hot topic. The paper empirical analysis on effectiveness and independence of Chinese monetary policy from international transmission and internal reaction. With international transmission, paper researches on the relation of China’s money supply and interest with the interest of US, Japan and EU. And analyzing whether the variation of interest rate leads to co-rotating variation of quantity of money from internal mechanism. In internal, paper researches on the relation of China’s money supply and interest with economic growth. With the conclusion, the paper gives some advices.
文章引用：吴可, 王红丽, 阙跃辉. 中国货币政策独立性与有效性的实证分析[J]. 金融, 2012, 2(3): 143-150. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/FIN.2012.23016

参考文献

[1] 孙华妤. 传统钉住汇率制度下中国货币政策独立性和有效性: 1998-2005[J]. 世界经济, 2007, 1: 29-38.
[2] 龚刚, 高坚, 何坚中. 汇率制度与货币政策: 发展中国家和小国经济的思考[J]. 经济研究, 2008, 14(6): 25-36.
[3] 范从来, 赵永清. 中国货币政策的独立性: 1996-2008[J]. 金融研究, 2009, 5: 22-34.
[4] 邓乐平, 冯用富, 晋重文. 浮动汇率制度下货币政策的独立性[J]. 金融研究, 2002, 3: 56-64.
[5] 何慧刚. 中国外汇冲销干预和货币政策独立性研究[J]. 财经研究, 2007, 52(11): 18-30.
[6] A. C. Stockman. International transmission under Bretton woods. NBER Working Papers 4127, 1992.
[7] G. Bertola, L. E. O. Svensson. Stochastic devaluation risk and the empirical fit of target-zone models. Review of Economic Studies, 1993, 60(3): 689-712.
[8] J. Frankel, S. L. Schmukler and L. Serven. Global transmissiom of interest rates: Minetary independence and currency regime. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2004, 23: 701-733.
[9] M. Obstfeld, J. C. Shambaugh and A. M. Taylor. The trilemma in history: Tradeoffs among exchange rates, monetary policies, and capital mobility. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 12(87): 423-438.
[10] M. J. Aziakpono. Financial and monetary autonomy and inter- dependence between South Africa and the other Sacu countries. South African Journal of Economics, 2008, 6(76): 189-211.
[11] R. Clarida, J. Gali and M. Gertler. Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2000, 115(1):147-180.
[12] L. Ball. Policy rules and external shocks. Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 82, 2000.
[13] O. Bajo-Rubio, M. D. Montávez-Garcés. Was there monetary autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU? The German dominance hypothesis re-examined. Journal of Applied Economics, 2002: 185-207.
[14] R. Veyrune. Fixed exchange rates and the autonomy of monetary policy: The Franc zone case. IMF Working Papers, 2007, 2: 7- 34.
[15] 刘斌. 货币政策冲击的识别及我国货币政策有效性的实证分析[J]. 金融研究, 2001, 7: 1-9.
[16] 陆军, 舒元. 货币政策无效性命题在中国的实证研究[J]. 经济研究, 2002, 48(3): 21-26.
[17] 谭旭东. 中国货币政策的有效性问题——基于政策时间不一致的分析[J]. 经济研究, 2008, 54(9): 46-57.
[18] 杨丽. 1998年以来我国货币政策有效性评析[J]. 金融研究, 2004, 11: 98-103.
[19] C.-J. Kim, J.-W. Lee. Exchange rate regimes and monetary independence in East Asia. Pacific Economic Review, 2008, 5 (13): 155-170.
[20] F. Jens, O. Lars. On the link between exchange-rate regimes and monetary-policy autonomy: The European experience. The World Economy, 2006: 341-368.
[21] L. E. Ohanian, A. C. Stockman. Short-run independence of mo- netary policy under pegged exchange rates and interest rates. NBER Working Paper No. 4517, 1993.
[22] 孙华妤. 中国货币政策独立性和有效性检验——基于1994- 2004年数据[J]. 当代财经, 2006, 27(7): 26-32.
[23] 金山. 中国货币政策的独立性: 基于协整分析方法和VAR模型的实证研究[J]. 上海经济研究, 2009, 5: 3-11.
[24] G. Ma, R. N. McCauley. Do China’s capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalization. BIS Working Papers, 2007, 8(233): Working Papers No. 233.
[25] 王丽萍, 龙敏. 我国货币政策独立性研究——以蒙代尔–弗莱明模型分析[J]. 经济论坛, 2006, 19(2): 25-26.

为你推荐