基于PT-MA理论的消费者消费意愿变化研究

Study on the Change of Consumers’ Consumption Intention Based on PT-MA Theory

摘要: 2021~2023年，中国消费信心指数跌至2007年以来新低，下降34.5。这表示现阶段消费者行为已发生了巨变，这给社会经济带来了负面影响。本文基于PT-MA理论，建立了梯度下降法优化的ABM模型，按风险偏好将消费者分为三类，仿真模拟各类消费者消费意愿的变化。研究发现：1) 促消费政策和活动对风险中立和风险追求型消费者有效；2) 消费意愿不受社会舆论影响，我们认为这一反直觉现象的发生是因为消费者对经济变化不敏感；3) 消费体验对任何风险偏好类型的消费者的消费意愿都有负面作用。最后，本文总结了研究贡献和局限性，并提出了提升消费意愿的建议。

Abstract: From 2021 to 2023, China’s consumer confidence index fell to a new low since 2007, down 34.5. This indicates that consumer behavior has changed dramatically at this stage, which has a negative impact on the social economy. Based on the PT-MA theory, this paper establishes an ABM model optimized by gradient descent method, divides consumers into three categories according to risk preference, and simulates the change of various consumers’ consumption intention. The findings are as follows: 1) Consumption promotion policies and activities are effective for risk-neutral and risk-seeking consumers; 2) Consumption intention is not affected by public opinion. We believe that this counterintuitive phenomenon occurs because consumers are not sensitive to economic changes; 3) Consumption experience has a negative effect on the consumption willingness of consumers with any type of risk appetite. Finally, this paper summarizes the contributions and limitations of the research, and puts forward some suggestions to improve the willingness to consume.