水资源研究  >> Vol. 2 No. 1 (February 2013)

基于线性矩法的广东极端降水区域频率分析
Regional Frequency Analysis of Extreme Rainfall in Guangdong Using L-Moments Approaches

DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2013.21002, PDF,  被引量 下载: 2,696  浏览: 9,487  科研立项经费支持

作者: 黄 强*, 陈子燊, 刘占明*:中山大学地理科学与规划学院水资源与环境系;刘曾美:华南理工大学水利水电工程系

关键词: 极端降水区域频率分析线性矩法分布函数区域频率曲线Extreme Rainfall; Regional Frequency Analysis; L-Moments Approach; Frequency Distribution Function; Growth Curve

摘要: 利用1951~2010年广东省24个气象站点每年的最大日降水量资料,应用基于线性矩的区域频率分析方法进行频率分析。根据影响降水形成的主要因素,将整个广东分成了6个子区域,分别为珠江三角洲流域、北江流域、东江流域、西江流域、韩江及东南沿海诸河流域和粤西诸河流域。除北江流域选用Kappa分布外,其余5个子区域均选用GLO分布作为它们的区域分布函数。珠江三角洲流域、北江流域、韩江及东南沿海流域和粤西沿海流域500年以下重现期,东江流域和西江流域100年以下重现期的频率曲线分位值具有较高的可靠性,由它们估算的设计值可用作工程设计的参考标准。
Abstract: Based on the 1951-2010 observed precipitation datas of annual maximum daily precipitation in 24 meteorological stations of Guangdongprovince, the regional frequency of extreme rainfall was analyzed using L-moments approaches. According to the main factors of rainfall formation, the wholeGuangdongwas divided into six subregions, which located in the Pearl River Delta,BeijiangRiver basin,DongjiangRiver basin,XijiangRiver basin,HanjiangRiver basinand eastern coastal region, and western coastal region, respectively. Except theBeijiangRiver basinwith the Kappa distribution, other five subregions all select the GLO distribution for their regional frequency distributions. The growth curve show a high reliability in quantiles of 500 return years in the Pearl River Delta, Beijiang River basin, Hanjiang River basin and eastern coastal region, and western coastal region, and 100 return years in the Dongjiang River basin and Xijiang River basin, which can be used for the engineering design standard.

文章引用: 黄强, 陈子燊, 刘曾美, 刘占明. 基于线性矩法的广东极端降水区域频率分析[J]. 水资源研究, 2013, 2(1): 7-13. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2013.21002

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