人民币国际化进程的战略分析

A Strategic Analysis of RMB’s Internationalization

摘要: 人民币国际化是中国成长为世界大国的必由之路。法郎国际化失败的重要原因是综合国力不能与国际化进程相匹配。征战欧洲、争夺海上霸权的进程反而加速了法国国际地位的丧失和法郎的衰败。日元国际化的代价是资产泡沫化后长达20年的经济衰退。其原因是货币国际化进程中政治、经济自主权的缺失，以及资本市场的过度开放。本文分析了法郎和日元国际化进程中的问题，并引入自我肯定需求理论，认为在美元仍将主导国际货币体系数年中，管理好大国成长预期，在次要国际货币地位上，务实地调整国民经济、发展国内金融市场、寻求国际认可，来韬养国民自我肯定需求，是人民币国际化的战略核心。

Abstract: The process of RMB internationalization is a growing need of the rise of China. The disreputable past of FRF and its fail of becoming an internationalized currency caused by expeditionary wars of France imply that the internationalization process of a currency must keep in pace of the growth of a nation. The Yen emerged as an international currency in the 1990s, but it came at painful cost of real estate bubble and subsequent recession in Japan. We review the history and apply the self- assertiveness demand theory to claim the risk of over accelerated internationalization process of currencies and offer a strategy of RMB’s internationalization.