基于联立方程和分布滞后模型的吉林省城乡居民收入差距影响因素分析

The Factor Analysis on the Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents in Jilin Province Based on the Simultaneous Equations Models and the Distributed Lag Models

摘要: 根据1978年~2012年的城乡居民收入的年度数据对吉林省城乡居民收入差距的发展变化状况进行了比较分析，分析得出吉林省城乡居民收入都在迅速增长，吉林省城镇居民可支配收入和农村居民纯收入都比全国平均水平高，但城乡居民收入差距存在不断扩大的趋势。根据指标的可量化性选取11个影响城乡居民收入差距的可测指标，建立了分布滞后和联立方程模型，对影响吉林省城乡居民收入差距的各因素及其关系进行分析。分析结果表明，目前城乡居民收入差距与经济增长之间存在复杂的矛盾。政府必须从多方面多角度提供相应政策来缩小城乡收入差距；对于农村，要加大新型农村建设的支持力度，提高农村居民的收入水平，合理调节收入分配。否则收入差距的扩大将导致收入不均等–经济衰退–收入不均等的恶性循环。根据模型结果及分析给出缩小吉林省城乡收入差距的合理建议。

Abstract: According to the annual data of 1978-2012, we compare and analyze the changing situation and development of the income gap between urban and rural areas in Jilin province. According to the analysis, we get that the income of urban and rural residents in Jilin province is growing rapidly, the urban disposable incomes and the rural residents’ pure income are both higher than the cor-responding national average levels, but the income gap between urban and rural has enlarged trend constantly. Based on the quantifiable of the index, we select 11 measurable attributes that may influence the income inequality and build the Distributed Lag Models and the Simultaneous Equations Models to analyze the effect of the attributes and their relations on the income inequality. The results indicate that there is a conflict between the income inequality and the economic growth. Government must provide corresponding policies and supports to narrow the income gap from the multi-side and multi-view. In rural areas, government should strengthen the support to the construction of the New Rural, and raise the level of rural residents’ income, adjust income distribution reasonably. Otherwise, the expansion of the income gap will lead to a vicious cycle of “income inequality-the recession-income inequality”. On the basis of the model and analysis, we are given reasonable suggestions to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas of Jilin province.