中国主要农业气象灾害时空分布特征研究

The Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the Main Agrometeorological Disasters in China

摘要: 农业对气候变化十分敏感，灾害性天气直接影响农业生产，进而影响我国的经济发展。本文利用中国种植业信息网自然灾害数据库1978~2013年的统计数据，分析了我国近40多年来农业气象灾害的时间变化趋势和空间分布特征，探讨了农业气象灾害对我国农业生产的影响。结果表明：1) 1978~2013年以来，我国农业气象灾害的灾情日趋严峻，灾害面积有增加趋势；在干旱、洪涝、风雹、低温四种灾害中，旱灾和风雹受灾面积和受灾比率呈下降趋势，低温灾害成灾面积和成灾比率呈增加趋势，洪涝灾害成灾面积和成灾比率基本变化不大；2) 旱灾是对我国影响最大的农业气象灾害，洪涝第二，风雹次之，低温成灾面积最小；3) 从空间分布来看，旱灾灾情华北地区最为严重，其次是东北地区，再之为西南地区。洪涝灾害则主要位于华中地区，其次是华东、华南、西南，华北、西北。东北地区是我国风雹灾害较严重的地区。低温灾害各地区间差异不大，主要分布在西北和华中等地。本研究对我国农业生产具有一定的指导作用，能够降低农业气象灾害所造成的损失。

Abstract: Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change; weather disasters can directly affect agricultural production, and affect the economic development of our country. This paper uses statistical data of China planting information network of natural disaster database from 1978 to 2013 to analyze the temporal and spatial distributions of the agricultural meteorological disasters. The results showed that: 1) The areas caused by agrometeorological disasters in China have increased significantly. Among the four disasters (drought, flood, hailstorm, chilling injury), the areas of drought and hail-storm are in a declining trend, while the disaster area and disaster rate of the chilling injury have increased. Besides, the disaster area and disaster rate of flood have little change. 2) Drought is the greatest serious agricultural meteorological disaster among the four main disasters, the next is flood, the third is hailstorm, and the chilling injury is the smallest. 3) In terms of regional distribution, the North China is the most serious area affected by agricultural meteorological disaster, fol-lowed by the Northeast China and the Southwest China. Flood is mainly distributed in the central region of China, followed by South China, East China, Southwest China, and North China. Hailstorm is mainly located in the Northwest China and Northeast China. Chilling disaster is mainly distributed in the northwestern and central China. This study summarized the spatial and temporal characteristics of the four meteorological disasters, which helps us to understand and grasp the regularity of disaster and also the impacts on agricultural production.