贵州省夏季极端高温变化特征

Characteristics of Extreme High Temperature in Summer in Guizhou Province

摘要: 随着全球变暖趋势加剧，极端天气事件频发，对国民经济发展和生态环境保护构成了严重威胁，本文采用贵州省25个气象观测站1970~2009年夏季(6月至8月)逐日气温资料，通过线性趋势法、M-K突变检测法，对贵州省近40年夏季极端高温事件进行特征分析，结果表明：(1) 近42年贵州省极端高温天数总体在波动中逐年上升，振幅变化较加大。(2) 极端温度和极端最高温度呈多–少–多的年际变化，总体在振动中增大。(3) 极端高温阈值与海拔高度有关，低海拔地区极端高温阈值大，高海拔地区则与之相反。(4) 极端高温有两个极值中心，一个位于黔东北部的思南，一个位于东部的铜仁。受地形地貌的影响，贵州极端高温日数多年平均以盘县、息烽、铜仁、三穗分布较多。

Abstract: With the increasing trend of global warming, extreme weather events occur frequently. It is a serious threat to the development of national economy and the protection of ecological environment. In this paper, the daily temperature data of 25 meteorological observation stations in Guizhou Province from June to August in the summer of 1970-2009 are used to analyze the characteristics of extreme high temperature events in the past 40 years in Guizhou Province through the linear trend method and M-K mutation detection method. The results show that: (1) The extreme high temperature days in Guizhou Province are fluctuating in the past 42 years. It increases year by year and amplitude changes increase. (2) The average temperature and the extreme maximum temperature change from more to less to more, and increase in vibration. (3) The extreme high temperature threshold is related to the altitude. The extreme high temperature threshold is large in the low altitude area, but it is opposite in the high altitude area. (4) The extreme high temperature has two extreme centers; one is located in Sinan in the north of East Guizhou and the other is located in Tongren in the East. Due to the influence of topography, the number of extremely high temperature days in Guizhou is more in Panxian, Xifeng, Tongren and Sansui.