基于CMIP5模式的东北地区干旱时空变化预估研究

The Study on the Projection of Temporal and Spatial Changes of Drought in Northeast China Based on the CMIP5 Models

摘要: 基于14个CMIP5模式集合平均的sc_PDSI数据集，运用趋势分析，经验正交函数(EOF)等方法对东北地区未来100 a的干旱时空变化特征进行了预估研究。结果表明，未来100年东北地区基本呈现出北部变湿润，南部变干的趋势，且主要以夏季干旱为主。从1986~2005年，21世纪初期(EP: 2016~2035年)及21世纪末期(LP: 2080~2099年)EOF分解第一模态模态均表现为全区一致性，其方差贡献率分别达到50.2%，41.2%及45.0%，但是在21世纪中期(MP: 2046~2065)，则呈现出南北相反型，方差贡献率为31.4%。未来100 a东北地区冬春季将会变湿润，夏秋季会变干，而且夏季比秋季变干更明显。

Abstract: Based on the sc_PDSI data set of 14 CMIP5 models’ ensemble mean, and the methods including trend analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in northeast China in the next 100 a are projected. The results indicate that the north part of northeast China will become wet and the south part will be dry, and mainly depends on the drought in summer. The first model of EOF during the period of 1986~2005, 2016~2035 (EP) and 2080~2099 (LP) suggests that conformation in the whole region, and the variance contribution reaches 50.2%, 41.2%, and 45.0%, respectively. However, in the middle of the 21st century (MP: 2046~2065), the first model exhibited opposite patterns in the north and the south part, the variance contribution is 31.4%. In winter and spring, it will become wet and becomes dry in summer and fall, and in summer it will be drier than that in the autumn.