贝叶斯推断下的胶西北金矿集区焦家断裂成矿构造不确定性建模

Uncertainty Modeling of Jiaojia Fault Metallogenic Structure Based on Bayes Inference in Northwestern Jiaodong Peninsula, Shandong Province

摘要: 焦家断裂带是胶西北金矿集区最重要的控矿构造之一，深部找矿潜力巨大。随着矿产勘查深度的增加，深部成矿构造研究已然成为深部找矿的基础前沿工作，是实现深部找矿三维结构分析与定量成矿预测的先行任务和前提条件。然而，焦家断裂深部地质信息获取难度大、数据信息量少，导致三维结构模型可能具有较大的不确定性，因此如何度量并且有效减小模型不确定性成为深部成矿构造研究需要解决的问题。本文提出将地质–地球物理信息融入三维结构建模，实现焦家断裂深部成矿构造模型的不确定性度量和可视化。研究表明，在地质约束的基础上进一步加入地球物理数据约束能够进一步减小三维结构模型不确定性，最终的不确定性模型为后续重建焦家深部成矿构造的三维精细结构提供理论基础，为焦家深部找矿提供引导。

Abstract: The Jiaojia fault is one of the most important ore-controlling faults in the Jiaodong Peninsula and has great potential for deep mineralization. With the increase of exploration depth, the study of deep mineralization structure has become the basic frontier work, which is the first task and prerequisite to the three-dimensional structure analysis and quantitative prediction for deep mineralization. However, the difficulty of obtaining geological information and lacking data information in depth in the Jiaojia fault leads to large uncertainty in the geological model. Thus, how to measure and effectively reduce the model uncertainty becomes the key point in the study of geological modeling. This paper proposes to integrate geological and geophysical information into 3D geological modeling for uncertainty measurement and visualization of the Jiaojia Fault. The result shows that the addition of geophysical constraints can further reduce the uncertainty of the 3D geological model. And the uncertainty model provides a theoretical basis for the subsequent reconstruction of the refined geological model of the Jiaojia fault and provides guidance for the Jiaojia mineralization.