北京市全社会用电量的研究与短期预测

Research and Short-Term Prediction of the Total Social Electricity Consumption in Beijing

摘要: 根据1990年至2020年的北京全社会用电量数据，分析北京用电量的变化趋势及各产业用电占比情况，得出第三产业用电量在一定程度上决定着北京用电量的结论。然后对北京全社会用电量序列进行异常值、ADF平稳性检验，构建ARIMA模型，通过拟合值、残差序列说明模型拟合效果优良，从而预测北京未来5年全社会用电量值。再与2021年北京用电量初步统计数据进行对比，说明预测准确度较高。面对预测中北京全社会用电量不断上升的趋势，从增加装机、优化发电结构、保障输送三个方面给予相关建议。

Abstract: According to the whole social electricity consumption data in Beijing from 1990 to 2020, the changing trend of electricity consumption in Beijing and the proportion of electricity consumption in various industries are analyzed, and it turns out that the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry determines the electricity consumption in Beijing to a certain extent. Then, the outliers and ADF stability were tested on the electricity consumption sequence of the whole society in Beijing, and the ARIMA model was constructed. The fitting effect of the model was excellent so as to predict the electricity consumption value of the whole society in Beijing in the next 5 years. Compared with the preliminary statistics of Beijing’s electricity consumption in 2021, it shows that the prediction accuracy is high. In the face of the forecast trend of the rising electricity consumption of the whole society in Beijing, relevant suggestions are given from the three aspects of increasing the installed capacity, optimizing the power generation structure and ensuring the transportation.