人民币汇率对中国–东盟自贸区贸易关系影响的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Influence of RMB Exchange Rate on Trade Relationship between China and ASEAN

摘要: 随着中国–东盟自贸区的建立，以及“一带一路”政策的提出，极大的推动了中国和东盟各国之间的商品贸易发展，中国与东盟各国跨境人民币结算量逐年增加，人民币汇率的变化直接影响到中国–东盟之间的双边贸易结算。本文将中国对东盟主要国家的进出口额作为被解释变量，将间接标价法下的东盟主要国家兑换人民币的汇率作为解释变量，借鉴固定效应变截距面板数据模型，建立出进出口估计方程，研究人民币汇率对东盟各国之间的双边贸易的影响。实证研究发现，人民币汇率波动对中国–东盟的双边进出口贸易存在显著负向影响，自贸区的建立则正向推动了双边贸易的发展，外商直接投资和“8.11”汇改则对出口贸易具有积极作用。针对实证结果，本文提出加强人民币汇率预期管控，健全人民币汇率形成机制，加快中国–东盟自由贸易区升级步伐，大力发展国民经济的政策建议。

Abstract: With the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and the proposal of the “Belt and Road” policy, the development of commodity trade between China and ASEAN countries has been greatly promoted. The amount of cross-border RMB settlement between China and ASEAN countries has increased year by year. The change of RMB exchange rate directly affects the bilateral trade settlement between China and ASEAN. In this paper, the import and export volume of China to the major ASEAN countries is used as the explanatory variable, and the exchange rate of the major ASEAN countries to the RMB under the indirect pricing method is used as the explanatory variable. Based on the fixed effect variable intercept panel data model, the import and export estimation equation is established to study the impact of the RMB exchange rate on bilateral trade between ASEAN countries. The empirical study finds that the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has a significant negative impact on China-ASEAN bilateral import and export trade. The establishment of free trade zone is promoting the development of bilateral trade. Foreign direct investment and “8.11” exchange rate reform have a positive effect on export trade. In view of the empirical results, this paper proposes to strengthen the control of RMB exchange rate expectations, improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, accelerate the pace of upgrading the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, and vigorously develop the national economy.