新型电力系统中不确定性潮流计算的研究

Research on Uncertain Power Flow Calculation in New Power Systems

摘要: 潮流计算是电网工作人员进行电力系统规划和电力系统运行监测的一个基础环节，对电力系统稳定运行有着极为重要的意义。近年来，“碳中和”概念的提出迫使电力行业实行能源转型，风力发电和光伏发电在电力系统中的渗透率逐渐提高。但由于风光发电具有很强的随机性，因此新能源发电并网势必会导致电网随机波动增强，对电力系统安全和稳定的运行产生不利影响。概率潮流分析可以解决含风光等不确定性因素的电力系统潮流计算准确性问题，有助于识别电力系统的薄弱环节和高风险工作方式，也可为网络规划和决策提供有价值的参考。本文采用基于蒙特卡洛法和半不变量法的概率潮流计算方法，对含风光等不确定性因素的电力系统进行潮流分析，得到节点电压和支路功率的概率分布函数以及节点电压越限概率等信息，为电力系统规划和运行提供有价值的数据反馈。

Abstract: Power flow calculation is a fundamental step for power system planning and operation monitoring by power grid personnel, and is of great significance for the stable operation of power systems. In recent years, the introduction of the concept of “carbon neutral” has forced the power industry to implement energy transformation, and the penetration of wind and photovoltaic power generation in the power system has gradually increased. However, due to the strong randomness of wind power generation, the grid connection of new energy generation will inevitably lead to increased random fluctuations in the power grid, which will have a negative impact on the safe and stable operation of the power system. Probabilistic power flow analysis can solve the accuracy problem of power flow calculation in power systems with uncertain factors such as wind and rain, help identify weak links and high-risk working modes in power systems, and provide valuable reference for network planning and decision-making. In this paper, a probabilistic power flow calculation method based on the Monte Carlo method and the semi invariant method is used to perform power flow analysis for power systems with uncertainties such as wind and solar power. The probability distribution functions of node voltage and branch power, as well as the probability of node voltage exceeding limits, are obtained, providing valuable data feedback for power system planning and operation.