养老金收入对人口出生率的影响研究

The Impact of Pension Income on Birth Rate in China

摘要: 近年来我国出生率持续降低，全面三孩的政策已经开放，在“养儿防老”的传统背景下，养老金收入上升可能是导致出生率下降的重要因素。为探究养老金收入与出生率的关系，本文利用31个省级行政区2003~2019年的面板数据建立双固定效应模型进行实证分析。结果表明，养老金收入上涨对出生率存在显著的负向作用，且具有区域异质性，对中西部地区效应明显，而对东部地区不显著。因此在完善养老保险制度时，增加养老保障的福利应适度，以减少对生育产生过多的挤出效应。

Abstract: The birth rate in China has been declining in recent years and the rise in pension income may be an important factor in the decline of the birth rate against the backdrop of the tradition of “raising children for old age”. To explore the relationship between pension income and birth rate, this paper conducts an empirical analysis using panel data for 31 provincial administrative regions from 2003~2019.The results show that there is a significant negative effect of rising pension income on the birth rate and that there is regional heterogeneity, with the effect being significant for the cen-tral and western regions, but not for the eastern regions. Therefore, when improving the pension in-surance system, the increase in pension benefits should be moderate so as to reduce excessive crowding out effects on childbirth.