全球稀土贸易网络结构特征演化及影响因素分析

Evolution of Global Rare Earth Trade Network Structure and Its Influencing Factors

摘要: 稀土在战略新兴产业的发展中起着不可或缺的作用，是推动全球经济结构调整和国民经济高质量发展的关键战略性资源。本文基于社会网络分析法和QAP回归方法用2004~2022年全球稀土贸易数据从整体和个体两个层面探究了全球稀土贸易网络结构特征的演化过程并对其影响因素进行了分析。研究发现：中国是世界上最大的稀土进口国，稀土进口额远超别的国家，出口额也在整体呈上升趋势；全球稀土矿贸易网络的贸易联系趋于紧密，具有较高的集团性，呈现出小世界网络特征；核心国家相对固定，存在“核心–边缘”结构，德国、美国、中国等国家为核心国家，中国影响力在逐步提升，但还是具有“卡脖子”风险；全球稀土矿贸易网络社团结构分化逐渐由稀疏到紧密，以美国为主的社团逐渐占据垄断地位，而以中国为主的社团国家数量近两年出现了较大的下降；经济组织关系和外交关系因素对稀土贸易存在显著的正向影响，经济发展水平差异和专利差异因素有一定的正向影响，而殖民关系因素对稀土贸易没有显著影响，地理距离差异会对稀土贸易产生一定抑制作用。研究结果为我国稀土贸易战略方案制订有一定的政策启示。

Abstract: Rare earth plays an indispensable role in the development of strategic emerging industries and is a key strategic resource for promoting global economic restructuring and high-quality development of the national economy. Based on social network analysis and QAP regression method, this paper uses the global rare earth trade data from 2004 to 2022 to explore the evolution process of global rare earth trade network structure and analyze its influencing factors from both the overall and individual levels. The results show that: China is the world's largest importer of rare earth, the amount of rare earth imports far exceeds other countries, and the export value is also on the rise; The global rare earth ore trade network tends to have close trade links, and has a high collectivity, showing the characteristics of small-world network. The core countries are relatively fixed and have a “core-periphery” structure, with Germany, the United States, China and other countries as the core countries. China’s influence is gradually increasing, but it still has the risk of “jamming”; The community structure of the global rare earth ore trade network gradually diverged from sparse to close, and the community dominated by the United States gradually occupied a monopoly position, while the number of community countries dominated by China showed a large decline in the past two years. The factors of economic organization and diplomatic relations have a significant positive impact on rare earth trade, and the factors of economic development level and patent difference have a certain positive impact, while the factors of colonial relations have no significant impact on rare earth trade, and the geographical distance difference will have a certain inhibitory effect on rare earth trade. The research results have some policy implications for the formulation of China’s rare earth trade strategy.