COVID-19疫情对全球汽车市场影响的实证分析——基于空间计量模型
Empirical Analysis of the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on Global Automobile Market—Based on Spatial Econometric Model
DOI: 10.12677/WER.2021.104018, PDF,  被引量    科研立项经费支持
作者: 吕沛颖：香港中文大学，香港；巫细波, 赖长强：广州市社会科学院，广东 广州
关键词: COVID-19疫情；全球汽车销量；Moran指数；空间杜宾模型；空间溢出效应；COVID-19 Epidemic； Global Car Sales； Moran Index； Spatial Dubin Model； Spatial Spillover Effect
摘要: 全球蔓延的COVID-19疫情对汽车市场形成明显的抑制效应。本文基于Moran指数和空间杜宾模型实证分析了2020年COVID-19疫情对全球汽车市场的影响。研究发现：1) 疫情显著加剧了全球汽车销量下滑且呈现明显的地区差异，严格防控疫情有助于减缓疫情对汽车市场的冲击。2) Moran指数分析结果显示2020年全球汽车销量有显著的空间自相关效应，南亚为汽车销量高值集聚区，非洲为销量低值集聚区。3) 空间杜宾模型估计结果显示存在空间溢出效应，邻近地区的汽车销量会对本地区的销量造成抑制效应，而邻近地区的汽车产量会对本地区的销量有促进效应。最后文章提出了几点促进疫情下全球汽车市场发展的建议。
Abstract: The global spread of COVID-19 epidemic has a significant inhibitory effect on the automobile mar-ket. This paper empirically studied the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on global automobile market in 2020 based on Moran index and spatial Dubin model. This study found that: 1) The epi-demic remarkably exacerbated the decline in global car sales and showed significant regional dif-ferences. Strict epidemic prevention and control may help to slow down the impact of epidemic on automobile market. 2) Moran index results showed that there was significant spatial autocorrela-tion effect on global car sales in 2020. South Asia was high car sales cluster region, while Africa was low car sales cluster region. 3) Spatial Dubin model estimates showed that there existed spatial spillover effect. Car sales in neighboring areas will have negative effect on local car sales, while car production in neighboring areas will have positive effect on local car sales. In the end, this article put forward some suggestions on promoting global automobile market under the epidemic.
文章引用：吕沛颖, 巫细波, 赖长强. COVID-19疫情对全球汽车市场影响的实证分析——基于空间计量模型[J]. 世界经济探索, 2021, 10(4): 141-151. https://doi.org/10.12677/WER.2021.104018

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