近46年温州市平阳县气温变化特征

Analysis on Characteristics of Temperature Variation in Pingyang County of Wenzhou City in Recent 46 Years

摘要: 利用1971~2016年平阳县国家气象观测站月平均气温、年平均气温、日极端最高、最低气温等观测资料，采用气候倾向率、滑动平均法、M-K趋势检验和突变分析方法对平阳县年均气温和各季节气温的变化特征进行分析。结果表明：平阳县年均气温呈升高趋势，并以20世纪90年代后期为界，经历“冷–暖”两个时期，增温率为0.36℃/10a，低于浙江省平均水平。年平均气温在1997年发生突变现象，由平稳的气温变化转变为显著上升趋势。2003年之后气温呈明显上升趋势；极端最高气温增温趋势显著，增温率为0.069℃/年。高温日数呈显著上升趋势，升幅0.36 d/年，并在2003年发生增加性突变；极端最低气温增温率为0.002℃/年，气温增幅不大。低温日数呈显著下降趋势，降幅0.53 d/年，并在1989年发生减少性突变；四个季节的气温年际变化特征均表现为增温，其中秋季的气温倾向率最大，冬季最小，与年平均气温序列的相关上春季最高，冬季最小。

Abstract: Based on the observation data of monthly average air temperature, annual mean temperature, extreme maximum and minimum air temperature of the National Meteorological Observatory in Pingyang from 1971 to 2016, the climate change tendency, the average moving average method, the MK trend test and the mutation analysis method were used to analyze the data of the annual average temperature and the seasonal variation of temperature in Pingyang County. The results show that the annual average temperature in Pingyang County is on an upward trend. In the late 1990s, it experienced two periods of “cold-warm”, and the rate of temperature increase was 0.36˚C/10a, lower than the average level of Zhejiang Province. The annual average temperature was abruptly changed in 1997, which was changed from a steady temperature change to a significant upward trend. After 2003, the temperature showed a clear upward trend; extreme maximum temperature warming trend is significant, the rate of warming is 0.069˚C/year. The number of high temperature days showed a significant upward trend, an increase of 0.36 d/year, and in 2003 increased mutations; extreme minimum temperature warming rate of 0.002˚C/year, the temperature increase was not. The number of low temperature days showed a significant downward trend, a decrease of 0.53 d/year, and in 1989 decreased mutation; the inter-annual temperature characteristics of four seasons showed warming, of which the highest temperature in autumn tendency, the smallest in winter. The correlation between mean temperature series is highest in spring and smallest in winter.