跨境电商进口对消费扩容的影响效应研究

Research on the Impact Effect of Cross-Border E-Commerce Imports on Consumption Expansion

摘要: 推动居民消费的增长和升级是我国经济工作的重点，跨境电商零售进口作为连接国内消费者与全球市场的纽带，其对居民消费的影响日益受到重视。本文在理论分析基础上聚焦于跨境电商进口对中国居民消费规模的影响，利用2013~2022年30个省级数据，通过固定效应模型分析发现跨境电商进口显著促进了居民消费规模扩大，且这一效应在控制内生性后依然稳健。研究还表明，城镇化水平强化了跨境电商进口对消费的正面影响，而居民收入有一定的替代效应。跨境电商进口尤其在东部地区推动了消费增长，且更倾向于促进生存型和享受型消费，而对发展型消费的比重有所下降。基于研究结果，本文提出了相应的政策建议，旨在为跨境电商进口业务的发展和居民消费的扩张提供参考。

Abstract: Promoting the growth and upgrading of consumer spending is a priority in China’s economic work. As a link between domestic consumers and the global market, cross-border e-commerce retail imports are increasingly valued for their impact on consumer spending. This paper, based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of cross-border e-commerce imports on the scale of consumer spending, conducts an empirical analysis using a fixed effects model with data from 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions from 2013 to 2022. The research findings are as follows: Firstly, the current cross-border e-commerce imports significantly promote the expansion of consumer spending in China, a conclusion that still holds after a series of robustness tests including endogeneity. Secondly, the level of urbanization significantly strengthens the promoting effect of cross-border e-commerce imports on consumer spending, while resident income shows a certain substitutive effect. Lastly, in terms of consumption types, cross-border e-commerce imports have promoted the growth of survival and enjoyment consumption, with the proportion of survival consumption increasing and the proportion of development consumption decreasing; in terms of regional distribution, cross-border e-commerce imports have a positive effect on the expansion of consumer spending in the eastern regions. Based on the research results, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations, aiming to provide references for the development of cross-border e-commerce import business and the expansion of consumer spending.