跨境电子商务综合试验区对企业供应链韧性的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Cross-Border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones on Enterprise Supply Chain Resilience

摘要: 随着全球贸易环境不确定性上升和外部冲击频发，供应链韧性成为保障企业稳定运营与可持续发展的关键能力。本文基于2010~2023年中国上市公司的面板数据，以跨境电子商务综合试验区的设立作为准自然实验，采用双重差分法(DID)实证检验跨境电子商务综合试验区对企业供应链韧性的影响，并进一步探讨融资约束缓解、技术创新和数字化转型三条作用机制。研究结果表明：第一，跨境电商综合试验区的设立显著增强了企业的供应链韧性，结果在控制多种变量并进行多重稳健性检验后依然成立。第二，机制分析显示，跨境电子商务综合试验区通过缓解企业融资约束、促进技术创新和加快数字化转型，有效提升了企业对供应链冲击的应对与恢复能力。第三，异质性检验发现，政策对中小企业和非国有企业的影响更为显著，体现出政策在资源相对不足企业中具有更强的边际效应。本文的研究不仅拓展了跨境电子商务综合试验区的政策效果评估的理论视角，也为推动企业供应链管理能力提升提供了有益的实证支持与政策启示。

Abstract: With the increasing uncertainty of the global trade environment and frequent external shocks, supply chain resilience has become a key capability to ensure the stable operation and sustainable development of enterprises. This article is based on panel data of Chinese listed companies from 2010 to 2023, using the establishment of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones as a quasi natural experiment. The Difference-in-Differences (DID) is used to empirically test the impact of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones on the resilience of enterprise supply chains, and further explore the three mechanisms of alleviating financing constraints, technological innovation, and digital transformation. The research results indicate that, firstly, the establishment of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones significantly enhances the supply chain resilience of enterprises, and the results still hold true after controlling for multiple variables and conducting multiple robustness tests. Secondly, mechanism analysis shows that the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones have effectively enhanced the ability of enterprises to respond to and recover from supply chain shocks by alleviating financing constraints, promoting technological innovation, and accelerating digital transformation. Thirdly, heterogeneity testing found that the impact of policies on small and medium-sized enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises is more significant, reflecting that policies have stronger marginal effects in resource scarce enterprises. This study not only expands the theoretical perspective of policy effectiveness evaluation in cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones, but also provides useful empirical support and policy insights for promoting the improvement of enterprise supply chain management capabilities.