跨境冷链物流风险管理研究

Research on Risk Management of Cross-Border Cold Chain Logistics

摘要: 在全球经济一体化与消费升级驱动下，跨境冷链物流市场规模持续扩张，但全链条风险管控难题突出，导致生鲜、医药等温敏商品损耗率居高不下，制约行业发展。本研究聚焦跨境冷链物流环境下的特有风险及环节间的耦合效应，通过政策梳理、多主体调研及全环节分析，系统识别境内(外)仓储、运输、通关、配送五环节风险因素，构建包含4个准则层、18个指标层的全链条风险评价体系。采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标权重，经一致性检验验证体系科学性。研究表明，运输风险为首要风险来源，其中温控衔接断裂风险最为关键；通关风险次之，政策突变货物停滞风险占比最高。该研究打破冷链与跨境物流分离分析的局限，量化风险优先级，为企业制定针对性防控策略提供量化依据，为跨境冷链企业提升全链条风险抵御能力提供决策参考。

Abstract: Driven by global economic integration and consumption upgrading, the market scale of cross-border cold chain logistics (CCCL) has expanded continuously. However, prominent challenges in end-to-end risk management have resulted in persistently high spoilage rates for temperature-sensitive commodities—such as fresh produce and pharmaceuticals—thereby constraining industrial advancement. This study focuses on the intrinsic risks and inter-segment coupling effects unique to CCCL. By integrating policy reviews, multi-stakeholder investigations, and full-linkage analysis, the research systematically identifies risk factors across five critical phases: domestic and overseas warehousing, transportation, customs clearance, and terminal distribution. Accordingly, a hierarchical risk evaluation framework is subsequently established, consisting of 4 criteria layers and 18 specific indicators. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is utilized to assign weights to each indicator, with its scientific validity confirmed through consistency testing. Empirical results demonstrate that transportation risk constitutes the primary threat, with temperature control discontinuity (cold chain breakage) identified as the most pivotal factor. Customs clearance risk follows in significance, where the risk of cargo stagnation induced by abrupt policy shifts holds the highest weight. This research transcends the limitations of analyzing cold chain and cross-border logistics in isolation. By quantifying risk priorities, it provides a robust, data-driven foundation for enterprises to devise targeted mitigation strategies, ultimately fostering the high-quality development of the CCCL industry.