人口老龄化对经济高质量发展的影响及数字化应对策略

The Impact of Population Aging on High-Quality Economic Development and Digital Response Strategies

摘要: 伴随着中国进入深度老龄化社会阶段，人口结构快速变化给经济发展模式、生产力形态带来了新的挑战和要求。研究从需求侧和供给侧、就业结构以及新质生产力三方面系统梳理人口老龄化对经济高质量发展的双重影响，并分析了数字经济在应对老龄化形势中所起的赋能作用。尽管人口老龄化使得劳动力供给减少、财政支出结构变化、技术创新活力降低，给传统以及新兴生产体系带来压力；但是老年人口数量的持续增长也孕育出巨大的消费潜力和新的“银发经济”模式。在此过程中，数字技术的融合发展既改善了老年人接入社会服务的能力，又依靠就业结构的二次平衡、生产效率的提高以及新兴服务产业的拓展，发挥着调节与推动新质生产力形成的作用。研究最后提出，需从供需两方面入手，以数字适老化作为抓手以形成新的发展模式，实现人口老龄化与经济高质量发展的良性配合。

Abstract: As China enters the stage of a deeply aging society, rapid changes in the population structure have brought new challenges and requirements to the economic development model and the form of productivity. This study systematically reviews the dual impacts of population aging on high-quality economic development from three aspects: the supply side, the employment structure, and new quality productive forces, and analyzes the enabling role of the digital economy in responding to aging trends. Although population aging reduces labor supply, reshapes the structure of fiscal expenditures, and weakens the vitality of technological innovation, thereby putting pressure on both traditional and emerging production systems, the continued growth of the elderly population also contains enormous consumption potential and new “silver economy” models. In this process, the integrated development of digital technologies not only improves older adults’ ability to access social services, but also, through a secondary rebalancing of the employment structure, higher production efficiency, and the expansion of emerging service industries, plays a regulating and driving role in the formation of new quality productive forces. Finally, the study proposes that efforts should be made from both the supply and demand sides, using age-friendly digital transformation as a key lever to form new production models and achieve a positive alignment between population aging and high-quality economic development.