基于DLNM的盐城市O3污染及气象因素研究
Study on O3 Pollution and Meteorological Factors in Yancheng City Based on DLNM
DOI: 10.12677/aep.2026.163029, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 陈 雯, 周宏伟, 张 芮, 盛 也, 裔传详：盐城市气象局，江苏 盐城；王 爽：吉林省突发事件预警信息发布中心，吉林 长春
关键词: 臭氧污染；气象因素；分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)；相关性分析；Ozone Pollution； Meteorological Factors； Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM)； Correlation Analysis
摘要: 基于盐城大市区2019~2023年四个国控站点的O3浓度数据与气象因子数据，分析年、月、日尺度的臭氧污染特征，发现年浓度呈现出先下降后升高的趋势，2021年最低，2022年最高。各站点的臭氧月平均浓度在全年整体呈现先中间高、两边低的变化特征，臭氧浓度高值主要出现在4~8月份。日浓度峰值出现在4~9月，最高值出现在6月。斯皮尔曼系数表明臭氧浓度与气压和相对湿度呈显著负相关，与气温呈显著正相关。DLNM模拟结果表明在滞后0~6天内，温度、湿度、风速对臭氧浓度的影响均表现出显著的时变特征和条件依赖性。高温显著促进臭氧的生成，低温则会在初期抑制臭氧的生成，但抑制效果随时间逐渐减弱。低湿条件在短期内持续促进臭氧生成，而高湿条件持续抑制臭氧的生成。低风速条件下，臭氧浓度容易累积，而高风速则能够有效稀释臭氧及其前体物，显著降低臭氧浓度。中等风速则会在一定程度上保持臭氧的生成与扩散的平衡。
Abstract: Based on the O3 concentration data and meteorological factor data from four national control stations in the main urban area of Yancheng City during 2019~2023, this study analyzed the characteristics of ozone pollution on annual, monthly, and daily scales. The results showed that the annual O3 concentration presented a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with the lowest value in 2021 and the highest in 2022. The monthly average O3 concentrations at all stations exhibited an overall pattern of being high in the middle and low on both sides throughout the year, with high values mainly occurring from April to August. The daily concentration peaks appeared from April to September, and the highest value was recorded in June. Spearman’s correlation analysis indicated that O3 concentration was significantly negatively correlated with atmospheric pressure and relative humidity, and significantly positively correlated with air temperature. The results of Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM) simulation showed that within 0~6 days of lag, the effects of temperature, humidity, and wind speed on O3 concentration all exhibited significant time-varying characteristics and conditional dependence. High temperature significantly promoted O3 formation, while low temperature initially inhibited O3 formation, but the inhibitory effect gradually weakened over time. Low humidity conditions continuously promote ozone formation in the short term, while high humidity conditions consistently inhibit ozone generation. Under low wind speed conditions, O3 concentration was prone to accumulation, while high wind speed could effectively dilute O3 and its precursors, significantly reducing O3 concentration. Moderate wind speed maintained a certain balance between O3 formation and diffusion.
文章引用：陈雯, 周宏伟, 张芮, 王爽, 盛也, 裔传详. 基于DLNM的盐城市O3污染及气象因素研究[J]. 环境保护前沿, 2026, 16(3): 288-296. https://doi.org/10.12677/aep.2026.163029

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