直播浪潮下的大学生钱包：基于逻辑回归和随机森林模型的消费洞察

College Students’ Wallets in the Live-Streaming Wave: Consumer Insights Based on Logistic Regression and Random Forest Models

摘要: 本研究聚焦大学生在直播电商场景中的冲动消费行为，基于价格锚定、社会临场感与自我控制资源消耗等理论，构建包含促销强度、主播可信度、互动频率、冲动人格得分、月消费预算及直播观看时长六大影响因素的分析框架。通过问卷调研，团队共获取795份有效样本，并结合逻辑回归与随机森林模型进行实证分析，最终得到六大因素的具体影响权重。模型整体R²检验结果为0.436，AUC值为0.82，预测性能优秀，同时本研究为引导大学生理性消费及规范直播电商生态提供理论依据与实践建议。

Abstract: This study focuses on impulsive consumption behaviors among college students in live-streaming e-commerce scenarios. Based on theories such as price anchoring, social presence, and self-control resource depletion, an analytical framework was constructed encompassing six key influencing factors: promotional intensity, host credibility, interaction frequency, impulsive personality scores, monthly spending budget, and live-stream viewing duration. Through questionnaire surveys, the team collected 795 valid samples. Empirical analysis combining logistic regression and random forest models yielded specific weightings for each factor. The overall model achieved an R² result of 0.436 and an AUC value of 0.82, demonstrating excellent predictive performance. This study provides theoretical foundations and practical recommendations for guiding rational consumption among college students and regulating the live-streaming e-commerce ecosystem.