厄尔尼诺事件对晋城夏季降水的影响分析

Effects of El Nino Events on Summer Precipitation in Jincheng

摘要: 利用晋城5个气象观测站1961~2018年夏季(6~8月)降水资料，分析了晋城58年来的降水变化趋势，着重分析了厄尔尼诺事件对晋城夏季降水及旱涝的影响，结果表明：晋城夏季降水量呈波动下降的趋势；晋城夏季降水与厄尔尼诺事件密切相关，厄尔尼诺开始年及持续年对应夏季干旱，夏季降水偏少几率为66.7%，出现干旱的几率为29.4%，中等强度及以上的厄尔尼诺开始年及持续年夏季降水量偏少几率为90.0%，出现干旱的几率为50%；厄尔尼诺结束年对应夏涝，夏季降水偏多几率为64.7%，出现夏涝的几率为41.2%，中等强度及以上的厄尔尼诺结束年，夏季降水量偏多几率为90.0%，出现夏涝的几率为70%。

Abstract: The features of summer precipitation and the correlation between El Nino events and summer precipitation in Jincheng city were investigated by using the precipitation data of 5 stations in Jincheng City during 1961-2018 (June to August). The main results show that the summer precipitation in Jincheng city has a decreasing trend in the last 50 years; there was a close relationship between droughts and floods in Jincheng and El Nino. The starting year of the El Nino event and the year of the El Nino event were mostly corresponding to summer drought in Jincheng city, with the probability of less summer precipitation as 66.7%, with the probability of summer drought as 29.4%, with the probability of less summer precipitation as 90%, with the probability of summer drought as 50%. In the stronger El Nino events, the ending year of the El Nino event was mostly corresponding to flood in Jincheng city, with the probability of more summer precipitation as 64.7%, with the probability of summer drought as 41.2%, with the probability of more summer precipitation as 90%, with the probability of summer drought as 70%.