中国区域CMIP6模式气温要素模拟能力评估

Assessment of Air Temperature Simulations in China by CMIP6 Multi-Models

摘要: 使用全球气候系统模式来模拟研究未来气候变化是现在常用的方法。由于全球气候系统模式对区域尺度的模拟能力有较大的不确定性，所以预估未来气候变化之前通常要进行模式模拟能力的评估。本文利用CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)中的8个全球气候系统模式对中国区域进行气温要素模拟的结果，来评估全球气候系统模式对中国区域的模拟能力。同观测资料对比，能得出以下结论，此8个模式能较好的模拟过去一段时间中国气温变化的大致趋势，都呈现升温的趋势。对中国区域的模拟，模式对青藏高原和四川盆地等受地形影响气温变化的模拟能力不是很好，产生非常大的冷偏差。对国内中部以及东南地区的模拟能力也就相对较好，误差较小。

Abstract: Based on the simulations of global climate system models, the projection of future climate change can be researched. Since the global climate system model has great uncertainty in the ability to simulate the regional scale, this study uses the results of the temperature element simulations of the 8 global climate system models in CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) to evaluate the ability of simulation global climate system model in China. Comparing with the observation data, the following conclusions can be drawn: each model can better simulate the general trend of temperature changes in China in the past period, and all show a warming trend. For the temperature simulation in China, the models are not very good at simulating the topography-related temperature change, such as in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and in the Sichuan Basin, resulting in very large cold deviations. The simulation capability for the central and southeastern regions of China is relatively good, with small bias.