近60年丽江气候变化特征分析

Characteristics of Climate Change in Lijiang in Recent 60 Years

摘要: 为了研究丽江地区的区域气候变化及其成因，本文使用数据为区站号56651地面气象台站1960~2019年逐月的月平均降水量、平均气温、平均相对湿度、日照时数四个气象要素的观测资料，通过线性倾向趋势分析法和Mann-Kendall检验，对丽江地区60a气候变化趋势和气候突变特征进行了研究。结果表明：60a丽江气候变化为气温显著上升，降水量略有减小，相对湿度显著减小，年日照时数也呈现显著减少的趋势。整体表现为暖干变化趋势。平均气温上升率为2.3℃/10a，降水量下降率为−2.7 mm/10a，平均相对湿度下降率为−2.4%/10a，年日照时数减少率为−30.2 h/10a。M-K检验表明在20世纪90年代末期，年平均气温发生了突变，2000年后，丽江地区进入了显著的暖期；年降水量在1985年出现了一次减少的突变；相对湿度在21世纪初期出现了突变，此后显著下降；年日照时数的突变年是1982年，此后日照时数下降。

Abstract: In order to study the regional climate change in Lijiang area and its causes, this paper uses data for the four meteorological elements of the area station No. 56651 surface meteorological station 1960~2019 from mean monthly precipitation, average temperature, average relative humidity, and sunshine hours. Based on the observational data of Lijiang, the 60-year climate change trend and the characteristics of climate abrupt changes in Lijiang area have been studied through linear trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test. The results show that the climate change in Lijiang in 60 years has resulted in a significant increase in temperature, a slight decrease in precipitation, a significant decrease in relative humidity, and a significant decrease in annual sunshine hours. The overall performance is a warm-dry trend. The average temperature rise rate is 2.3˚C/10 years, the precipitation decrease rate is −2.7 mm/10 years, the average relative humidity decrease rate is −2.4%/10 years, and the annual sunshine hours decrease rate is −30.2 h/10 years. The MK test showed that in the late 1990s, there was a sudden change in the average annual temperature. After 2000, the Lijiang area entered a significant warm period. There was annual precipitation weakened abruptly in 1985. The relative humidity had a sudden change in the early 21st century, and there-after significant decline. The mutation year of the annual sunshine hours was 1982, after which the sunshine hours declined.