博乐机场2021年7月一次连续性雷暴天气分析与气象服务保障

A Continuous Thunderstorm Weather Analysis and Meteorological Service at Bole Airport in July 2021

摘要: 本文选取2021年7月9日~10日博乐机场一次连续性雷暴天气过程，利用天气实况、环流形势以及各物理量场等相关资料，对此次雷暴天气过程展开分析。结果表明：造成博乐机场此次雷暴天气的主要影响系统是500 hPa高空槽过境，且700 hPa上有较强的上升运动，强盛的西南气流输送，有利于对流天气的生成和维持；此外，在过程发生前期和过程发生中，博乐机场一直处于对流不稳定状态，KI指数数值大小对预报发展有很好的指示作用，在今后预报本场雷暴天气时要特别注意KI ≥ 35℃的区域，KI指数数值在过程前后的变化，对过程发生消亡也有很好的指示意义。本文通过对此次天气的过程分析，为今后更加精准的预报雷暴天气提供参考依据。

Abstract: This paper analyses a continuous thunderstorm at Bole Airport from July 9 to 10 in 2021. Based on the data of actual weather, circulation situation and physical quantity fields, the thunderstorm weather process is analyzed. The results show that 500 hpa high-altitude trough transit, is the main impact system of this thunderstorm at Bole Airport and strong upward movement at 700 hPa, strong southwest airflow transport, is conducive to the generation and maintenance of convective weather. In addition, before and during the process, it has been in a state of convective instability at Bole Airport. The value of the KI index has a good indicator effect on the development of forecasting, pay attention to areas with KI ≥ 35˚C when forecasting the thunderstorm in the future. The change of KI index value before and after the process also has a good indication of the process of occurrence and demise. Through the process of analysis of the weather that provides a reference for more accurate forecasts of thunderstorms in the future.