家庭结构对老年人养老意愿选择的影响及其机制——基于CLASS数据的实证分析

The Impact of Family Structure on Old Age Willingness Choices of the Elderly and Its Mechanisms—An Empirical Analysis Based on CLASS Data

摘要: 我国进入老龄化社会以来，出现了老年人口基数大、增速快、高龄化、失能化和空巢化等趋势。这一情况加上我国未富先老的国情、家庭小型化的结构、社保制度滞后等因素，导致养老问题异常严峻。传统的家庭赡养面临压力，社会化养老将成为必然趋势。本文采用中国老年社会追踪调查(CLASS)大样本数据，使用Stata软件进行数据分析和建模，以我国老年人的养老方式选择行为作为研究对象，考察了在传统家庭养老照料资源逐渐缺乏的现实下，老年人对社会养老的意愿选择差异及其影响因素。研究发现我国老年人养老方式多样化程度较低，主要依赖传统家庭养老方式。这种现象受到社会经济因素、个体特征因素和社会支持因素的共同影响。经过实证分析，教育程度、婚姻状况、子女数量、身体健康状况、收入水平以及对养老机构的印象都会对老年人养老方式的选择起着显著影响。通过分析更加深入地了解和掌握中国老年人的养老意愿和选择，提供实证基础和政策建议，对于养老服务的发展也有更好的借鉴作用。

Abstract: Since China has entered an ageing society, there has been a trend towards a large base of elderly people, a rapid growth rate, advanced ageing, incapacitation and empty nesting. This situation, coupled with the national situation of China’s aging before wealth, the structure of small families, and the lagging behind of the social security system, has led to an unusually severe problem of old-age care. Traditional family support is under pressure, and socialised old-age care will become an inevitable trend. This paper adopts the large-sample data from the China Learning and Ageing Social Tracking Survey (CLASS), uses Stata software for data analysis and modelling, takes the elderly’s choice of old-age care as the object of study, and examines the differences in the elderly’s willingness to choose socialized old-age care and their influencing factors under the reality of the gradual lack of traditional family old-age care resources. The study found that the elderly in China have a low degree of diversification of their old-age care modes and mainly rely on traditional family old-age care modes. This phenomenon is jointly influenced by socio-economic factors, individual characteristic factors and social support factors. After empirical analyses, education level, marital status, number of children, physical health, income level, and impression of elderly institutions all play a significant role in the choice of the elderly’s retirement mode. The analysis provides a more in-depth understanding of the Chinese elderly’s willingness and choice of retirement, provides an empirical basis and policy recommendations, and has a better reference for the development of elderly care services.