福建省用水结构与产业结构回归分析

Regression Analysis on the Relationship between Water Consumption Structure and Industrial Structure in Fujian Province

摘要: 分析用水结构与产业结构的关系，合理确定与科学预测用水结构是制定水资源利用规划的基础。本文综合运用对称logratio变换与偏最小二乘回归(PLS回归)方法，建立了福建省用水结构与产业结构的成分数据线性回归模型。分析结果表明，福建省用水结构与产业结构的成分数据之间具有显著的线性关系；模型拟合精度高，可应用于用水结构的预测；农业用水与第一产业、工业用水与第二产业均呈高度正相关，农业用水与第二、三产业呈显著的负相关，生活用水与产业结构的相关程度较小；产业结构各因子对用水结构解释能力的排序为第二产业 ＞ 第一产业 ＞ 第三产业。

Abstract: Prediction of water consumption structure on the basis of the relationship between water consumption structure and industrial structure is essential to the exploitation and utilization of water resources. Based on the symmetrical logratio transformation and partial least-squares regression, linear regression model for water consumption structure and industrial structure in FujianProvinceis developed in this study. Analysis on the model showed that the compositional data of water consumption structure and industrial structure inFujianProvincehad obvious linear relationship. This model fit the data very well with high accuracy and can be used to predict water consumption structure. Agricultural water was highly correlated with primary industry, and so was the industrial water with secondary industry. Agricultural water showed significantly negative correlation with secondary industry and tertiary industry. The variation of domestic water had an insignificant correlation with industrial structure. The capacity to explain water consumption structure of the industrial structure factors was in the order of primary industry > secondary industry > tertiary industry.