高技术产品出口复杂度对贸易韧性的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Export Complexity of High-Tech Products on Trade Resilience

摘要: 贸易韧性对一国的经济稳定发展至关重要，我国作为外向型经济体，在经济危机时期，对外贸易受外部冲击的影响比较严重。运用2008~2016年各省(市区)的面板数据进行固定效应回归，主要研究高技术产品的出口复杂度与贸易韧性的关系，实证结果表明，高技术产品出口复杂度对贸易韧性具有显著的正向影响，可以通过产品出口多样化和出口技术复杂度的提升，从分散冲击和提升科技水平两个路径提高贸易韧性。在地区异质性上，高技术产品出口复杂度对西部地区的贸易韧性具有显著的正向影响。结果表明：我国高技术产品出口复杂度的提升能够促进地区出口产品多样化、出口产品技术水平提高，能够有效增强地区的贸易韧性，其中，我国西部地区尤为明显。

Abstract: Trade resilience is crucial for a country’s stable economic development. As an export-oriented economy, China’s foreign trade is severely affected by external shocks during economic crises. Using panel data from various provinces (cities) from 2008 to 2016 for fixed effects regression, this study mainly investigates the relationship between the export complexity of high-tech products and trade resilience. Empirical results show that the export complexity of high-tech products has a significant positive impact on trade resilience, which can be improved through diversification of product exports and improvement of export technology complexity, through two paths of dispersing shocks and improving technological level. In terms of regional heterogeneity, the complexity of high-tech product exports has a significant positive impact on the trade resilience of the western region. The results indicate that the increase in the complexity of China’s high-tech product exports can promote regional diversification of export products, improve the technological level of export products, and effectively enhance regional trade resilience, with the western region of China being particularly evident.