基于可能–满意度法下的内蒙古适度人口规模预测

Prediction of Moderate Population Size in Inner Mongolia Based on thePossibility-Satisfactory Method

摘要: 利用可能–满意度法预测了内蒙古2035年的适度人口规模。通过构建涵盖自然资源、生态环境、经济发展和社会生活四个维度的指标体系，综合各要素，确定指标权重，构建P-S模型进行预测。预测结果表明，到2035年内蒙古自治区的最优适度人口规模应在2172.71万人，理想适度人口规模为2257.82万人以上，满意适度人口规模大于2362.60万人，最大适度人口规模为2608.81万人。由此，从自然资源高效利用、生态环境保护修复、经济发展水平提升、社会生活状况优化等四个层面为内蒙古制定适度人口发展策略以促进地区经济高质量发展。

Abstract: The possibility satisfaction method was used to predict the moderate population size of Inner Mongolia in 2035. By constructing an indicator system covering four dimensions of natural resources, ecological environment, economic development, and social life, integrating various elements, determining indicator weights, and constructing a P-S model for prediction. The prediction results indicate that by 2035, the optimal moderate population size for Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region should be 23.9541 million people, with an ideal moderate population size of 24.4971 million or more, a satisfactory moderate population size greater than 25.0559 million people, and a maximum moderate population size of 26.0632 million people. Therefore, from four aspects: efficient utilization of natural resources, ecological environment protection and restoration, improvement of economic development level, and optimization of social living conditions, a moderate population development strategy is formulated for Inner Mongolia to promote high-quality regional economic development.