区域洪水资源利用潜力合理配置模型分析

Analysis of Regional Floodwater Utilization Potential Capacities Assessment and Rational Allocation Model

摘要:

本文依据洪水形成特征及其在地表径流中的特殊表现形态，以及洪水对社会经济系统发展和生态环境系统演变的作用等阐述了区域洪水资源可利用量概念，提出用于洪水资源合理配置分析的洪水资源利用潜力应当是一定洪水资源利用措施水平时的洪水增蓄量，且其计算值为在一定洪水资源利用措施水平下的洪水资源可利用量与现状洪水资源实际利用量之差。根据区域洪水资源合理配置的内涵及其相关原则，构建了区域洪水资源利用潜力配置分析的两阶段模糊数学规划模型及其计算方法。以实例分析演示了在已有常规水资源合理配置策略条件下，运用所建立的模型求解区域洪水资源利用潜力合理分配方案的步骤；并得出相应于二个水平年时的区域平均缺水深度分别为19.2%和20.7%，平均缺水深度分别下降1.8%以及1.9%，表明基于洪水资源利用的水资源合理配置策略可使研究区域不同水平年的缺水量和缺水深度得到一定改善。

Abstract: The regional utilizable floodwater quantity is analyzed according to flood forming mechanism and impacts upon the social, economic and ecological systems evolvement. The floodwater utilization potential capacities are described as floodwater incremental storage obtained from some floodwater utilization meas-ures, and defined as the difference between utilizable floodwater quantity and practical floodwater develop-ment quantity. The two-stage fuzzy programming model and computation procedures are proposed for analy-sis on regional floodwater rational allocation policy, according to objective and principle of regional flood-water utilization and distribution. The case study demonstrates application of proposed floodwater rational allocation model under condition that the conventional water resources allocation policy has been established for researched region. The research result shows that there are 19.2% and 20.7% of average water-shortage rate, and 1.8% and 1.9% of decline on average water-shortage rate, corresponding to two planning years, and the water-shortage amount and water-shortage rate have been improved visibly by water resources allocation policy with region floodwater utilization measures.