关于航空飞行服务分区气象预报方法的探讨

Discussion on the Meteorological Forecast Method of Aviation Flight Service Division

摘要: 随着民航事业不断发展，航空用户对精细化气象预报的要求日趋提高，为了落实民航局下发的航空气象“实用性”的要求，提供更优质的民航气象服务，根据用户对TCA划分的区域标准，通过运用统计学方法，将2023年三亚终端区域内的对流性天气，分别从不同的季节，运用不同的天气概念模型将造成对流的主要影响系统进行分类，再通过历史资料归纳出的不同区域普遍出现的对流覆盖率标准以及结合对流日变化的特点，综合做出所划分区域内的对流影响预判。结果表明，这套方法适用于大多数情形下的分区预报工作，但是对于台风、东风波等大型热带系统影响时该方法并不适用，容易出现对流覆盖率预估偏低的情况，同时在面临突发性天气时也存在一定的操作难度，此外由于统计学方法本身固有的缺陷，不可避免会造成预报结论会有较大的不稳定性，后续还需结合动力诊断等知识以及对工作程序的优化将所采用的方法进行完善。

Abstract: With the continuous development of the civil aviation industry, aviation users have increasing requirements for refined weather forecasts. In order to implement the “practical” requirements of aviation meteorology issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, provide better civil aviation meteorological services, according to the user’s regional criteria for the TCA division and by applying statistical methods, the convective weather in the terminal area of Sanya in 2023, respectively, from the different seasons, using different weather concept models to classify the main effects of convection systems. Then, through the convection coverage standard in different regions and the characteristics of convection daily variation, make the prediction of the convection influence within the divided region comprehensively. The results show that this method is suitable for most cases partition forecast, but for typhoon, east storm and other large tropical system when the method is not applicable, prone to convection coverage forecast is low, at the same time in the face of sudden weather also has certain operation difficulty, in addition due to the statistical method itself inherent defects, will inevitably cause forecast conclusion will have larger instability, subsequent also need to combine dynamic diagnosis and other knowledge and the optimization of the method of perfect.