综合评价标准下南京市老年人健康预期寿命研究

Research on the Healthy Life Expectancy of the Elderly in Nanjing under a Comprehensive Evaluation Standard

摘要: 本研究基于ADL、GALI建立递进式综合评价标准，利用苏利文方法对南京市老年人的健康预期寿命进行测算与分析。结果表明，南京市60岁老年人中，日常生活基本自理且综合活动参与能力良好的预期寿命(HLE_1)为16.78岁，日常生活基本自理但综合活动参与能力受限的预期寿命(HLE_2)为3.62岁，且随着年龄的增长，这两种健康状态的预期寿命均呈下降趋势；性别差异方面，虽然女性在HLE_1和HLE_2上均高于男性，但男性的生命质量相对更高。该标准能够更为清晰地捕捉到老年人在健康状态中的过渡过程，从完全健康、部分受限到失能的演变，为制定精准有效的老年人健康政策提供科学依据。

Abstract: This study establishes a progressive comprehensive evaluation standard based on ADL and GALI, and uses the Sullivan method to calculate and analyze the Healthy Life Expectancy of the elderly in Nanjing. The results show that among the elderly aged 60 in Nanjing, the Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE_1) for those who can take care of daily activities and have good comprehensive activity participation ability is 16.78 years, and the Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE_2) for those who can take care of daily activities but have limited comprehensive activity participation ability is 3.62 years. Both of these health states’ life expectancies show a decreasing trend with increasing age. In terms of gender differences, although women have higher HLE_1 and HLE_2 than men, men have a relatively higher quality of life. This standard can more clearly capture the transition process of the elderly in their health status, from being completely healthy, partially restricted to disabled, providing a scientific basis for formulating precise and effective health policies for the elderly.