数字物流、产业结构对我国林业经济增长的驱动效应

Driving Effect of Digital Logistics and Industrial Structure on Forestry Economic Growth in China

摘要: 林业是农村产业发展的重要一环，在推进乡村振兴和促进乡村经济中发挥重要作用，在林业产业的转型升级中，物流作为产业发展的产物，在驱动林业经济增长中起着不容忽视的作用。因此，研究数字物流与林业经济增长的关系对发展农村产业有重要的借鉴意义。本文基于2014年至2022年间29个省份的面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型，对数字物流与林业经济增长的直接和间接影响机制进行了实证检验。研究发现：1) 数字物流可以显著促进林业经济增长，在稳健性检验后，结论仍然成立；2) 中介效应结果显示，数字物流通过提高林业产业结构升级，间接促进林业经济增长；3) 经过异质性分析，数字物流在推动我国林业经济增长进程中存在区域差异性，主要表现在对东北区域存在显著效应，对中东西部效应不明显；对华北林区、东北林区林业经济增长有显著促进作用而对华东林区林业经济增长具有抑制作用。本文基于分工理论的研究范式，从数字物流视角，构建了数字物流–产业结构–林业经济增长的路径框架，探究了数字物流对林业经济增长的影响机理和路径，丰富了数字物流对林业发展产生的作用。基于此，提出林业发展中要促进数字物流的普及和农业科技创新率，加快推进林业生产经营信息化、规模化和合作化进程，加强各省县乡道路、农村仓储等基础设施建设。优化林业产业结构，推进林业产业多样化发展，为深入研究林业经济增长的驱动提供新思路。

Abstract: Forestry is a crucial aspect of rural industrial development, playing a significant role in promoting rural revitalization and facilitating rural economic growth. Logistics, as a product of industrial development, plays a non-negligible role in driving the economic growth of the forestry industry during its transformation and upgrading. Therefore, examining the relationship between digital logistics and forestry economic growth has important implications for the development of rural industries. Based on panel data from 29 provinces spanning from 2014 to 2022, this paper empirically tests the direct and indirect impact mechanisms of digital logistics on forestry economic growth using a fixed effects model and a mediation effects model. The findings reveal that: 1) Digital logistics significantly promotes forestry economic growth, and this conclusion remains valid after robustness testing; 2) The mediation effect shows that digital logistics indirectly promotes forestry economic growth by upgrading the forestry industry structure; 3) According to heterogeneity analysis, it is found that there are regional differences in the process of digital logistics promoting China’s forestry economic growth, which mainly manifests in significant effects on the northeastern region but insignificant effects on the central, eastern, and western regions. It significantly promotes the forestry economic growth in North China and Northeast China, but inhibits the forestry economic growth in East China. Based on the theory of specialization, this paper constructs a framework of digital logistics-industrial structure-forestry economic growth, explores the mechanism and path of digital logistics on forestry economic growth, and enriches the role of digital logistics in forestry development. So, it is proposed to promote the popularization of digital logistics and the innovation rate of agricultural science and technology in the development of forestry, accelerate the process of informatization, scale, and cooperation of forestry production and operation, strengthen the infrastructure construction of roads, rural warehousing and other facilities in various provinces, counties, and townships; optimize the forestry industrial structure and promote the diversified development of forestry industry; provide new ideas for further research on the driving forces of forestry economic growth.