人口老龄化对服务业全球价值链地位的影响研究

The Impact of Ageing on Global Value Chain Position in Service

摘要: 人口老龄化已成为国际社会共同面临的严峻现实问题，能否克服人口老龄化带来的劣势，是当前服务业全球价值链地位提升面临的重要问题。文章通过运用2000~2020年跨国面板数据，实证检验所提出的研究假设。研究发现，人口老龄化程度加深会显著抑制服务业全球价值链地位的提升，该结论在一系列检验后依然稳健。机制检验发现，生产率和市场需求是人口老龄化影响服务业全球价值链地位的主要渠道，而技术创新和产业结构升级能够缓解人口老龄化对服务业全球价值链地位的负面效应。异质性分析表明，中等收入水平经济体的人口老龄化对服务业全球价值链地位具有显著抑制作用，在高收入水平经济体中则不显著。上述结论为顺应人口老龄化与服务业全球价值链地位的政策制定提供了有益参考。

Abstract: The aging of the population has become a serious reality faced by the international community. Overcoming the disadvantages brought by the aging of the population is an important issue for the current service industry to enhance its position in the global value chain. Using cross-country panel data from 2000 to 2020, this paper constructs a dual fixed effects model to empirically validate the research hypotheses. The results show that the deepening of population aging will significantly inhibit the improvement of the GVC position in service, the conclusion proved to be consistently robust after a series of tests. The mechanism test finds that productivity and market demand are the main channels for aging to affect the GVC in service, and technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading can alleviate the negative effects of population aging on the GVC in service. Heterogeneity analysis shows that population aging in middle-income economies has a significant inhibitory effect on the GVC in service, while population aging in high-income economies is not significant. The above conclusion provides useful reference for policy-making in response to population aging and the global value chain position of the service industry.